credibility crisis - traduction vers allemand
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credibility crisis - traduction vers allemand

Actuarial credibility; Credibility Theory

credibility crisis      
Glaubwürdigkeitskrise
economic crisis         
  • Roman]] [[denarius]] was debased over time.
  • Declining consumer spending.
  • Wall Street on the morning of 14 May during the Panic of 1884.
  • [[Philip II of Spain]] defaulted four times on Spain's debt.
  • Black Friday, 9 May 1873, Vienna Stock Exchange. The [[Panic of 1873]] and [[Long Depression]] followed.
  • The bursting of the [[South Sea Bubble]] and [[Mississippi Bubble]] in 1720 is regarded as the first modern financial crisis.
SITUATION IN WHICH FINANCIAL ASSETS SUDDENLY LOSE A LARGE PART OF THEIR NOMINAL VALUE
Crises (economic); Economic crisis; Financial panic; Financial Panic; Monetary crisis; Financial crises; Economic crises; Financial Crises; Financial Crisis; Economical crises; Financial market turmoil; Life Cycle of an Economic Crisis; Causes of financial crises
Wirtschaftskrise
political crisis         
POLITICAL CRISIS OF GOVERNMENT
Political crisis; Government crisis
politische Krise (Spannung unter den Parteien)

Définition

Credibleness
·noun The quality or state of being credible; worthiness of belief; credibility.

Wikipédia

Credibility theory

Credibility theory is a branch of actuarial mathematics concerned with determining risk premiums. It is employed to combine multiple estimates into a summary estimate that takes into account information on the accuracy of the initial estimates. For example, in group health insurance an insurer is interested in calculating the risk premium, R P {\displaystyle RP} , (i.e. the theoretical expected claims amount) for a particular employer in the coming year. The insurer will likely have an estimate of historical overall claims experience, x {\displaystyle x} , as well as a more specific estimate for the employer in question, y {\displaystyle y} . Assigning a credibility factor, z {\displaystyle z} , to the overall claims experience (and the reciprocal to employer experience) allows the insurer to get a more accurate estimate of the risk premium in the following manner:

The credibility factor is derived by calculating the maximum likelihood estimate which would minimise the error of estimate. Assuming the variance of x {\displaystyle x} and y {\displaystyle y} are known quantities taking on the values u {\displaystyle u} and v {\displaystyle v} respectively, it can be shown that z {\displaystyle z} should be equal to:

Therefore, the more uncertainty the estimate has, the lower is its credibility.
Exemples du corpus de texte pour credibility crisis
1. "However I would like to stress that there is a huge credibility crisis for the General.
2. July 31 2005 1'÷33 Brazil‘s political parties have been plunged into a deep credibility crisis after fresh evidence emerged at the weekend that congressmen from several parties accepted improper financial contributions.
3. Updated: Wednesday, November 01, 2006 at 1145 hours IST Washington, November 1: Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf is facing a "huge credibility crisis" and needs to demonstrate that there are no terrorist training camps inside his country by denying immunity to militants, noted human rights activist Asma Jahangir has said.